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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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