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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.